Treballs Finals del Grau d'Economia, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2015-2016 , Tutor: Miquel Gutiérrez
(cast)El presente trabajo examina la evolución de la economía y sociedad venezolanas bajo
la óptica de la teoría de la maldición de los recursos. El objetivo es, tras hacer una
breve caracterización de los argumentos que sostienen la tesis, así como de algunas
de las críticas que suscita, comprobar el encaje del caso de Venezuela, país
caracterizado por su amplia disponibilidad de petróleo, dentro de la teoría. Para ello
se emplean tanto información macroeconómica y estadística como revisiones
históricas, que permiten contrastar el grado de adecuación de las hipótesis de la
paradoja con la realidad del caso. Tras concluir el análisis observamos como los efectos
económicos y políticos sí se cumplen para el caso de estudio, mientras los aspectos
sociales no reciben un impacto negativo en el largo plazo.
(cat)Aquest treball examina l’evolució de l’economia i societat veneçolanes sota l’òptica
de la teoria de la maledicció dels recursos. L’objectiu és, després de fer una breu
caracterització dels arguments que sostenen la tesi, així com d’algunes de les crítiques
que suscita, comprovar l’encaix del cas de Veneçuela, país caracteritzat per la seva
àmplia disponibilitat de petroli, dins l’argumentari. Amb aquest objectiu s’empren
tant informació macroeconòmica i estadística com revisions històriques, que permeten
contrastar el grau d’adequació de les hipòtesis de la paradoxa amb la realitat del cas.
Un cop es conclou l’anàlisi, observem com els efectes econòmics i polítics sí
s’acompleixen per al cas d’estudi, mentre que els aspectes socials no reben un impacte
negatiu en el llarg termini.
(eng)This work examines the evolution of the Venezuelan economy and society from the
perspective of the resource curse theory. This theory, also known as the Paradox of
Plenty, defends the impairment against the economic growth of a country related to
its resource abundance, because of the strong dependence on the resource
exploitation. This negative performance is associated at the same time with other
social, political and environmental negative effects.
The objective is to check the dovetail of the Venezuelan case, characterized by its
vast availability of oil, within the general thesis. First of all, there’s a brief explanation
about the different arguments that form part of the theory, as well as some challenges
aroused. Later, macroeconomic and statistical information of the country, as well as
historical reviews, are used to contrast the adequacy of the paradox hypothesis with
the reality of the case.
As a result, we find that the arguments related to the economic field are fulfilled
generally, at least once in Venezuelan contemporary history. Between these
mechanisms we find the Dutch disease (it implies a crowding out effect against other
activity sectors and the concentration around an extractive sector which cannot
generate productive linkages, as well as currency and inflationary tensions) and the
external imbalances. The impact of the primary products price tendencies is especially
remarkable. In the case of oil, its volatility causes important risks to the trade balance.
In the political sphere, rent seeking and corruption also have increased because of oil
abundance. Conversely, the mechanisms concerning to social aspects, like inequality,
unrest or human capital shortage, while there can be some punctual damaging impacts,
are not affected negatively in a long term approach. In fact, it can be considered that
oil rents have been useful to avoid them in some cases. We conclude, finally, that
Venezuela only corresponds partially with the hypothesis suggested by the theory, as
different effects taken from it are not present on its historical evolution.